Outperforming the Market

Outperforming the Market

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Outperforming the Market
Outperforming the Market
Weekly newsletter 122

Weekly newsletter 122

All market and portfolio news for the week

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Simple Investing
Jun 16, 2025
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Outperforming the Market
Outperforming the Market
Weekly newsletter 122
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Welcome to all new subscribers! Subscribers to Outperforming the Market get full access to the Barbell Portfolio, all my intrinsic value, 1-year and 3-year price targets in the Price Target Report, and real-time trade alerts when I place buy and sell orders. (I am fully invested in the Barbell Portfolio)

In addition, subscribers get a weekly deep dive on Fridays, a weekly newsletter on Mondays, and other earnings analysis, market review and portfolio review articles during the week. All links can be found consolidated here.

Articles posted in the last week

  1. Snowflake: A clear path to long-term upside

  2. Sea Limited: Upside remains in all 3 businesses

  3. Trade alert 76

  4. Tencent: Worth more than it seems (SOTP valuation)

  5. Weekly newsletter 121

Market Updates

  1. US core inflation

    1. US core inflation rises less than forecast for fourth month. Underlying US inflation rose 0.1% in May, less than forecast, suggesting companies are holding back on passing higher tariff costs to consumers. The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1% from April and 2.8% from a year ago, with goods prices unchanged and services prices rising 0.2%. Economists expect firms to raise prices more meaningfully in the coming months, and the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at next week's meeting.

  2. US jobs report

    1. US jobs report points to gradual moderation in labor market, with nonfarm payrolls increasing 139,000, and prior months' figures revised lower, indicating employers' caution about growth prospects. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while wage growth accelerated, and the labor market report showed strength in service providers, but warning signs in industries exposed to tariffs. The report also showed a decline in the labor force, a drop in the participation rate, and a rise in people going from employed to out of work, sparking concerns about the impact of Trump's economic policies on employment.

  3. EU sees US trade talks extending beyond Trump's July 9 deadline.

    1. The EU sees reaching an agreement on the principles of a deal by July 9 as a best-case scenario, which would allow further talks to work out the details. The two sides are now conducting in-depth discussions on both critical sectors – such as steel and aluminum, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and civilian aircraft – and tariff and non-tariff barriers. The EU is stepping up preparations for counter-measures, including actions that could go beyond tariffs, in case negotiations fail to yield a satisfactory outcome.

  4. US makes export controls negotiable as part of China trade talks.

    1. The US has changed its approach to trade talks with China, now explicitly negotiating export curbs in exchange for China's cooperation on rare earth elements. US export curbs, meant to keep sensitive technologies out of Beijing’s hands, are now explicitly up for negotiation. These curbs are now being used to pressure China into approving export licenses for rare-earth elements. If China complies, some restrictions will be lifted, but if not, the US may ramp up controls on goods like jet engine parts or target Chinese companies like Huawei Technologies Co. to secure rare earth flows.

  5. Treasury Secretary Bessent emerged as contender to Fed Powell.

    1. President Donald Trump has said he will name a successor "very soon" to replace Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, and Bessent is now one of the contenders for the job. Bessent's experience and reputation have earned him support from some, including Tim Adams, president and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, who believes he would be a good choice for the role. Other candidates whose names have previously been floated for Fed chair include Kevin Warsh, a former Fed board governor, Kevin Hassett, the White House’s National Economic Council director, Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, and former World Bank President David Malpass.

  6. Oracle ORCL 0.00%↑

    1. Oracle (+7% after market) sees ‘dramatically higher’ sales, boosting cloud momentum. Oracle projects cloud infrastructure sales will jump more than 70% in FY26 (May-ended), driven by robust demand for AI computing, boosting total cloud growth rate to be over 40%. Remaining performance obligations stood at $138 bn as of end-May, and are projected to grow by more than 100% into FY26. Oracle is also spending heavily to build and equip data centers globally, with capital expenditures tripling to $21.2 bn for FY25, and expected to increase to ~$25 bn in FY26.

  7. Nvidia

    1. Nvidia, Samsung plan investments in robotics startup Skild AI, taking minority stakes in Skild AI Inc. to bolster their work in the emerging consumer robotics industry. Samsung is investing $10 million in Skild, while Nvidia is investing $25 million, as part of Skild's Series B funding round, which values the company at around $4.5 billion. Samsung and Nvidia are seeking to expand their presence in the robotics industry, with Samsung already selling robot vacuums and planning to launch a new robot product later this year in partnership with Google.

  8. Huawei

    1. Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei downplayed the impact of US export restrictions on China, saying domestic firms can use techniques like chip packaging or stacking to achieve similar results to advanced semiconductor technology. Ren expressed confidence in China's ability to make breakthroughs in AI and software, particularly in an open-source environment, despite US restrictions on chip design programs for Chinese firms. Ren acknowledged Huawei's current limits, saying the company is still lagging behind the US in terms of output from a single chip, but can compensate with cluster-based computing to achieve desired results.

  9. Grab GRAB 0.00%↑

    1. Grab’s big convertible bond fuels hopes about GoTo Deal. Grab plans to sell $1.25 billon of bonds convertible into stock, the largest such deal among Asian companies this year, sparking speculation it's preparing to acquire rival GoTo Group. The bond sale has fueled optimism about a potential Grab-GoTo deal, despite Grab's statement that it's not currently in talks to buy GoTo, with an analyst saying there is a growing likelihood of a deal. The bonds will mature in June 2030 and can be redeemed under certain conditions from mid-2028, with Grab planning to use the funds for potential acquisitions and share buybacks.

  10. Apple AAPL 0.00%↑

    1. Apple unveiled a slew of updates to its various software platforms at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday. While Apple’s effort to start an AI comeback at this year’s conference fell short, with a limited number of enhancements, there are several new non-AI upgrades, such as a major visual overhaul, a new look that Apple calls “Liquid Glass”. As part of its rebranding efforts, the company also confirmed that it will use years, not version numbers, to identify its software. The upgraded platforms announced Monday, for instance, include iOS 26, iPadOS 26, tvOS 26, macOS 26, watchOS 26 and visionOS 26.

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